Global Context · Updated November 9, 2026
Macro Issues
The forces moving rates, oil, the dollar and risk appetite right now. Market levels are as of the November 3 close or the latest report cited.
Fed funds target3.75–4.00%
US 10-yr yield~4.96%
Oil (Nov 9)▼ 3%+
Dollar Index~101.9
CPI (Sept, y/y)3.7%
01 — Federal ReserveFed Holds After a September Hike
The Fed voted 10–2 on October 28 to keep its target range at 3.75–4.00%, after raising it by 0.25 points in September. Markets are pricing a possible hike at the next meeting on December 8–9, and Citi now expects one.
02 — InflationEnergy Keeps Headline CPI High
September CPI rose 0.6% on the month and 3.7% on the year, up from 3.4% in August. Energy prices were up about 20% year on year, while core CPI was 2.6%, so the gap between headline and core is the Fed’s dilemma.
03 — Oil & GeopoliticsUS–Iran Hormuz Headlines Drive Crude
Oil has been tied to the Gulf war since it began in late February. Crude fell more than 3% on November 9 on reports Iran may ease its Hormuz demands, helping lift equities. CPI and PPI later this week are the next catalysts for rate expectations.
04 — Treasury YieldsThe 10-Year Pulls Back From a 5.2% Peak
The 10-year yield topped 5.2% in early October, and the IMF noted it was up almost 110 basis points since the war began. It ended October at 4.94% and has hovered near 4.9–5.0% around the election. Mortgage rates above 7% were reported in late September.
05 — Labour MarketOctober Payrolls Beat Forecasts
Nonfarm payrolls rose 165,000 in October versus 65,000 expected, unemployment fell to 4.1% and prior months were revised higher. The report bolsters the growth outlook but lifts rate-hike odds, and it follows a strong JOLTS report on November 3 and jobless claims of 189,000 on November 5.
06 — Midterms & FiscalElection Day Meets a Heavy Borrowing Calendar
Investors are weighing what the midterm results mean for fiscal policy, the dollar and yields. Treasury expects to borrow $618B in Q4, and the Bipartisan Policy Center expects the debt limit to be reached between late winter and mid-summer 2027.
Sources: Federal Reserve and BLS releases, Reuters, CNBC, Saxo, Babypips, Morgan Stanley and IMF commentary as reported. Figures change quickly, so check before relying on them. Opinion and general information only, not financial advice.